Is it a bull market yet?
NO.
We are so not back.
Signal consensus · 53% bearish7/15
signals bullish
Only seven of fifteen indicators currently support a bull market.
Updated 13:44 UTC · refreshes hourly
Price and trend signals
Bitcoin price
Bearish$78,060
-38.1% vs ATH · high $126,080
52w low $58,566ATH
Bullish above $87,849 (50% over the 52-week low).
BTC 200-Day Trend
Bullish+14.5%
Price change vs 200 days ago
Long-term uptrend intact
Moving average and sentiment signals
200-Day Moving Avg
Bullish+11.3%
Price vs 200-day average
Price$78,060
200-day MA$70,127
Above the 200-day line
Sentiment Trend
Bearish63
7-day F&G avg · -1 pts vs prior 23d
Sentiment cooling
Market breadth and retail attention signals
Altcoin market
Bearish$1.11T
-0.37% today
BTC dominance58.5%
Alt seasonBTC dominant
Google Trends
Bearish48
“Bitcoin” 14-day avg · /100
Baseline: 64Decelerating
Institutional and stablecoin flow signals
ETF Prior-Weeks Flow
Bullish+$3.83B
Net flow, the ~23 days before this week
Sustained accumulation
Stablecoin Supply
Bullish+1.0%
30-day supply change
USDT + USDC$257.8B
30d change+$2.5B
Leverage and on-chain signals
Funding Rate
Bearish+6.4%
Annualized · ~7-day avg
Latest period0.0057% / 8h
Below neutral baseline (~+11%)
Miner Revenue
Bullish$39.5M
7-day avg daily · prev: $39.2M
Miners earning more
Active Addresses
Bearish467K
7-day avg daily · prev: 478K
Activity declining
Additional Context
Halving cycle
Context~577
days until next halving
882 days since the last · block #966,974
Last halving4-year cycleNext
Days since cycle top
Context343
days since $126,080 on 6 Oct 2025
In months11.3
A calendar, not a measurement. Past bear phases ran roughly 12 to 14 months top to bottom, on a sample of three.
Realized Price
Context1.48
MVRV · +48% vs realized price
Market price$78,060
Realized price$52,778
Price above network cost basis. A drop below it has marked every cycle bottom.
Pump.fun Activity
Context+34.3%
30-day fees vs prior 30 days
Last 30 days$45.6M
Prior 30 days$33.9M
New-coin trading rising
Bonding-curve and graduation fees, so this covers coins before they graduate. Rising or cooling needs a move of more than 5%.
PumpSwap Volume
Context+10.8%
30-day volume vs prior 30 days
Last 30 days$19.3B
Prior 30 days$17.5B
Graduated-coin trading rising
Where coins trade after graduating, so this covers the survivors rather than the new arrivals.
Total DeFi TVL
Context+20.4%
Value locked vs 30 days ago
Now$88.6B
30 days ago$73.6B
Capital flowing in
Every chain DefiLlama tracks. A stock, not a flow, so no double-counting of routed trades.
Hash ribbon
Context+1.3%
30-day hash rate vs 60-day
30-day average924 EH/s
60-day average913 EH/s
Miners recovered
What miners do, rather than what they earn. Shown as context and never counted.