Is it a bull market yet?
NO.
We are so not back.
Signal consensus · 85% bearish2/13
signals bullish
Only two of thirteen indicators currently support a bull market.
NO since 23 Oct · Updated 21:43 UTC · refreshes hourly
Price and trend signals
Bitcoin price
Bearish$64,950
-48.5% vs ATH · high $126,080
12m low $58,566ATH
Bullish above $87,849 (50% over the 12-month low).
BTC 200-Day Trend
Bearish-14.2%
Price change vs 200 days ago
Below 200-day level
200-Day Moving Avg
Bearish-11.0%
Price vs 200-day average
Price$64,950
200-day MA$72,982
Below the 200-day line
Sentiment and attention signals
Sentiment Trend
Bearish23
7-day F&G avg · -22 pts vs prior 23d
Sentiment cooling
Google Trends
Bearish29
“Bitcoin” 14-day avg · /100
Baseline: 38Decelerating
Institutional and stablecoin flow signals
ETF Prior-Weeks Flow
Bearish-$1.26B
Net flow, the ~23 days before this week
Sustained outflows
Stablecoin Supply
Bearish-4.6%
30-day supply change
USDT + USDC$244.8B
30d change$11.7B
On-chain signals
Realized Price
Bullish+1.4%
60-day change in network cost basis
Realized price$53,910
60 days earlier$53,151
MVRV1.20
Data to 8 Nov. The free feed runs about a week behind.
Miner Revenue
Bearish$29.6M
7-day avg daily · prev: $40.0M
Revenue declining
Active Addresses
Bullish479K
7-day avg daily · prev: 473K
Network activity rising
Additional Context
Halving cycle
Context~514
days until next halving
945 days since the last · block #976,016
Last halving4-year cycleNext
Days since cycle top
Context405
days since $126,080 on 6 Oct 2025
In months13.3
A calendar, not a measurement. Past bear markets ran about 12 to 13 months top to bottom, on a sample of three.
Hash ribbon
Context+1.9%
30-day hash rate vs 60-day
30-day average1008 EH/s
60-day average990 EH/s
Miners recovered
What miners do, rather than what they earn. Shown as context and never counted.
Total DeFi TVL
Context-14.9%
Value locked vs 30 days ago
Now$74.3B
30 days ago$87.3B
Capital leaving
Every chain DefiLlama tracks. A stock, not a flow, so no double-counting of routed trades.
Funding rate
Context+5.0%
Annualised · ~7-day average
Latest period0.0012% / 8h
Below the ~+11% baseline funding pays by default
Below that bar on almost every day since 2025, so it no longer votes.
BTC dominance
Context59.4%
Bitcoin's share of the crypto market
Altcoin market cap$892B
Bitcoin-led: above the 55% line
Above 55% on every day since early 2025, so it no longer votes.
Pump.fun Activity
Context-22.3%
30-day fees vs prior 30 days
Last 30 days$47.2M
Prior 30 days$60.8M
New-coin trading cooling
Bonding-curve and graduation fees, so this covers coins before they graduate. Rising or cooling needs a move of more than 5%.
PumpSwap Volume
Context-36.0%
30-day volume vs prior 30 days
Last 30 days$7.0B
Prior 30 days$11.0B
Graduated-coin trading cooling
Where coins trade after graduating, so this covers the survivors rather than the new arrivals.